Report: Swedish NATO membership will deter Russia in the Baltics

The benefits of a Swedish NATO membership outweighs the costs, suggests a government commissioned report delivered to the Swedish Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Changing the Swedish security doctrine is not an option, responds Foreign and Defense Ministers.

“The most tangible military consequence of Swedish NATO membership would be to dispel the current uncertainty regarding common action in the event of a Baltic Sea crisis, and that the West’s deterrence therefore most probably would increase,” reads the government commissioned report on Sweden’s international defense and security cooperation, “Security in a new era” that was released on Friday.

The report explores the new security environment in Europe and the future of international defense and security cooperation – including the highly disputed question of NATO membership. The long-serving diplomat and ambassador Krister Bringéus was commissioned to investigate these issues in connection with the defense agreement reached last year between the government parties (Social Democrats and the Green Party) and the conservative Moderates, the Liberal Party and the Christian Democrats.

Russian attack in the Baltics improbable, but conceivable

This conclusion is based on a gloomy analysis of the security environment surrounding Sweden. The report finds that Russia is the only state in Sweden’s neighborhood that, in the foreseeable future, could conceivable engage in military aggression against its neighbors. An isolated attack against Sweden is excluded, but in the event of a crisis in the Baltic Sea region, Sweden is likely to be drawn in at an early stage. The report finds that a Russian military attack against one or more of the Baltic States is improbable, but at the same time conceivable due to the Russian leadership’s unpredictability. The report further alludes that Russia has developed an antagonistic posture towards the West, and NATO in particular.

This assessment of Russia is in line with previous reports by the Swedish Defense Commission and the Government’s 2015 Defense Policy Bill.

The report finds that if Russia wishes to take military action towards NATO, it will do so where the alliance is at its weakest – in the Baltics. Although such a scenario is unlikely, the consequences would be catastrophic for Sweden who’s defense capabilities are limited and depend on outside support to maintain its sovereignty in a possible military crisis.

NATO-membership a political question

Both negative and positive implications of a possible Swedish NATO-membership is considered in the report, and it holds that it will not take a position on whether Sweden should join NATO or not. “Such a decision is of a political nature,” states the report. Bringéus underlined this during a press conference on Friday, where he said that the question of NATO membership cannot be decided by a expert report.

Changing Swedish security doctrine not an option

The political nature of the question of NATO membership became evident as the report was released, when Foreign Minister Margot Wallström (S) and Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist (S) saw their need to write an op-ed in Dagens Nyheter underlining that Sweden will not change its current security policy doctrine based on military non-alignment. The two ministers maintained that “Sweden’s military non-alignment contributes in a positive sense to the security stability in our region” and that “changing the Swedish security doctrine would naturally be perceived as dramatic and revolutionary.”

Meanwhile, the opposition parties, who are in favor of NATO membership, read the report in a different light. Hans Wallmark from the conservative Moderates said during the press conference on Friday that the report gives a clear recommendation for NATO membership, while Mikael Oscarsson from the Christian Democrats said that the report shows that there is no reason left not to join NATO. In a reply to the government parties’ op-ed in Dagens Nyheter, the representatives from the opposition parties write, “Swedish NATO membership is a natural step that will contribute to the stability in our neighborhood.”

No membership before political agreement

At an event on Finland, Sweden and the new security context in Europe at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) on Friday, experts Douglas Brommesson and Hanna Ojanen both said that there will be no Swedish NATO membership until the political parties reach an agreement on the matter.

Finnish-Swedish cooperation - An alternative to NATO?

The experts further discussed the bilateral cooperation between Finland and Sweden as an alternative to membership in NATO. The relationship between the countries was strengthened during the 90’s when they joined the EU. Sweden and Finland have recently established an informal defense cooperation that includes sharing of military infrastructure, common defense tasks such as combined air-patrols, and joint equipment procurement. The Swedish report on defense and security cooperation also points to the important relationship with Finland, and states that “cooperation with Finland is Sweden’s closest bilateral defense and security relationship.”

Brommeson, who is an associate professor at Lund University, describes the defense cooperation between Finland and Sweden as a way to increase defense capabilities without provoking Russia.  Meanwhile, he questions whether the military collaboration is perceived as credible by Russia, but says that it is too early to tell.  

Even though Sweden and Finland remains outside NATO, the countries’ relationship to the alliance has been strengthened after Russia’s actions in Ukraine. In May this year, Swedish lawmakers signed an agreement that allows NATO to more easily operate on Swedish territory during trainings or in the event of a conflict. In June this year, parts of the annual NATO BALTOPS exercise held in the Baltic Sea region took place on Finnish territory for the first time.